European Union
Climate change is already having devastating effects in the European Union (EU). This report collates scientific projections of how climate impacts will play out up to 2050 and 2100, on low, medium and high emissions pathways.
The science shows that the EU will experience devastating climate impacts if it follows a high-emissions pathway. The coasts, where many important cities, ports and industries such as tourism are centred, will be particularly affected by extreme weather and coastal erosion. Without urgent action to reduce emissions, the Mediterranean coast will face erosion of up to 10m per year. Forest fires will become more common, especially in the South and East of Europe, where an extra 1,659 square kilometres will be burned per year by 2050.
The faster the EU adopts low-carbon policies, the less the climate impacts cascade and the more manageable they become. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will see the cost of climate impacts in the EU drop from 4.66% of its GDP in 2100 under a high emissions scenario to 1.79%.
Image © Bernd Lauter / Greenpeace
Climate
Explore past, present and future scenarios for climate change in the EU. This section uses the most up to date climate science models to describe how climate change will affect temperature and precipitation trends in the EU. The research shows that on a high carbon pathway, temperatures in the EU could increase by as much as 2.5°C by 2050. On a low carbon pathway this drops to 1.6°C.
Ocean
How have sea temperatures changed in the oceans surrounding the EU, and what do future climate trends mean for the vital ecosystems and livelihoods supported by the EU’s oceans? This section shows how surface sea temperatures in the EU could increase by 1.9°C by 2050 in a high carbon scenario, triggering a sharp rise in ocean acidification and reducing fish catch potential by as much as 30.6%.
Coast
A changing climate could have devastating effects on the EU’s coastal settlements, infrastructure and ecosystems. Rising sea levels, coastal erosion and changing storm patterns could see 6.71 million people exposed to devastating floods by 2050, if it follows a high carbon pathway. Following a low carbon pathway and investing in climate-resilient coastal infrastructure will help the EU avoid the worst coastal impacts.
Water
Clean water is the foundation of all life. This section shows the increasing impacts from climate change threaten our access to water in the EU. Longer droughts, rising sea levels and more extreme weather will increase in the coming decades, choking off our most precious resource. In turn, that impacts agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure and tourism – causing massive economic costs. Only a low-carbon pathway can limit the damage.
Agriculture
Agriculture is a core element of the EU’s economy, contributing approximately 1.6% of the country’s annual GDP. This section shows the past, present and future impacts of climate change on the EU’s agriculture sector. It shows how climate change will impact crop productivity and put additional strain on the EU’s water resources, with droughts causing water demand to increase by up to 20.6% by 2050 – even in a low carbon scenario.
Forest
Forests are key to clean healthy air – supporting thriving ecosystems and economies. This section shows the past, present and future impacts of climate change on forests in the EU. If carbon levels remain high, huge losses in forest land will grow, damaging the EU’s agriculture, forestry and tourism industries. With urgent action, a low-carbon pathway will protect our forests from the worst impacts.
Urban
Cities in the EU face many threats from climate change. Unless we take urgent action, increasing extreme weather will batter urban communities across the country – damaging crucial infrastructure and causing massive economic losses. Increasing heatwaves and worsening air quality will harm urban residents’ health and even cost many their lives.
Health
The health of our planet is essential to the health of people in the EU. Without urgent action, climate change will drive longer heatwaves, rising sea levels and deadly storms, harming the EU’s economy. Higher poverty means worse health impacts. But on a low-carbon pathway, the EU can improve health outcomes and save lives.
Energy
Rising temperatures and more severe heatwaves will affect the EU’s energy system and change the profile of its energy demand.
Economic Impacts
Heatwaves, droughts, fires, floods and brutal storms. The EU faces multiple threats from climate change. Across sectors – agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure, tourism and more – the costs to the economy could be massive. Without urgent action, the EU stands to lose 1.95% of its GDP by 2050. That rises to 4.66% by 2100. By investing in a low-carbon economy now, the EU can limit those losses to 1.48% by 2050.
Policy
This section explores the EU’s historic and current emissions as compared with global emissions, and the targets and commitments it has put in place. The EU is the 4th biggest emitter among the G20 countries. Urgent political action is necessary in the EU to secure a low carbon future.
