Indonesia
Climate change is already having devastating effects in Indonesia. This report collates scientific projections of how climate impacts will play out up to 2050 and 2100, on low, medium and high emissions pathways.
The science shows that the climate impacts for Indonesia will grow if it follows a high-emissions pathway. Without urgent action to reduce emissions, heatwaves in Indonesia will last almost 8,000% longer by 2050, disrupting Indonesia’s workforce and devastating the country’s agriculture sector. Rising sea temperatures mean falling fish stocks that will cause up to Rp 66 trillion in losses. And coastal flooding as a result of rising sea levels will damage infrastructure – to the tune of Rp 632 trillion.
The faster Indonesia adopts low-carbon policies, the less the climate impacts cascade and the more manageable they become. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will see the cost of climate impacts in Indonesia drop from 4.4% of its GDP in 2050 under a high emissions scenario to just 2%.
Image © Ulet Ifansasti / Greenpeace
Climate
Explore past, present and future scenarios for climate change in Indonesia. This section uses the most up to date climate science models to describe how climate change will affect temperature and precipitation trends in Indonesia. The research shows that on a high carbon pathway, temperatures in Indonesia could increase by as much as 1.5°C by 2050. On a low carbon pathway this drops to 0.9°C.
Ocean
How have sea temperatures changed in the oceans surrounding Indonesia, and what do future climate trends mean for the vital ecosystems and livelihoods supported by Indonesia’s oceans? This section shows how surface sea temperatures in Indonesia could increase by 1.5°C by 2050 in a high carbon scenario, triggering a sharp rise in ocean acidification and reducing fish catch potential by as much as 20.3%.
Coast
A changing climate could have devastating effects on Indonesia’s coastal settlements, infrastructure and ecosystems. Rising sea levels, coastal erosion and changing storm patterns could see 12 million people exposed to devastating floods by 2050, if it follows a high carbon pathway. Following a low carbon pathway and investing in climate-resilient coastal infrastructure will help Indonesia avoid the worst coastal impacts.
Water
Clean water is the foundation of all life. This section shows the increasing impacts from climate change threaten our access to water in Indonesia. Longer droughts, rising sea levels and more extreme weather will increase in the coming decades, choking off our most precious resource. In turn, that impacts agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure and tourism – causing massive economic costs. Only a low-carbon pathway can limit the damage.
Agriculture
Agriculture is a core element of Indonesia’s economy, contributing approximately 13% of the country’s annual GDP. This section shows the past, present and future impacts of climate change on Indonesia’s agriculture sector. It shows how climate change will impact crop productivity and put additional strain on Indonesia’s water resources, with droughts causing water demand to increase by up to 52.1% by 2050 – even in a low carbon scenario.
Forest
Forests are key to clean healthy air – supporting thriving ecosystems and economies. This section shows the past, present and future impacts of climate change on forests in Indonesia. If carbon levels remain high, huge losses in forest land will grow, damaging Indonesia’s agriculture, forestry and tourism industries. With urgent action, a low-carbon pathway will protect our forests from the worst impacts.
Urban
Cities in Indonesia face many threats from climate change. Unless we take urgent action, increasing extreme weather will batter urban communities across the country – damaging crucial infrastructure and causing massive economic losses. Increasing heatwaves and worsening air quality will harm urban residents’ health and even cost many their lives.
Health
The health of our planet is essential to the health of people in Indonesia. Without urgent action, climate change will drive longer heatwaves, rising sea levels and deadly storms, harming Indonesia’s economy. Higher poverty means worse health impacts. But on a low-carbon pathway, Indonesia can improve health outcomes and save lives.
Energy
Rising temperatures and more severe heatwaves will affect Indonesia’s energy system and change the profile of its energy demand.
Economic Impacts
Heatwaves, droughts, fires, floods and brutal storms. Indonesia faces multiple threats from climate change. Across sectors – agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure, tourism and more – the costs to the economy could be massive. Without urgent action, Indonesia stands to lose 4.4% of its GDP by 2050. That rises to 13.27% by 2100. By investing in a low-carbon economy now, Indonesia can limit those losses to 2% by 2050.
Policy
This section explores Indonesia’s historic and current emissions as compared with global emissions, and the targets and commitments it has put in place. Indonesia is the 6th biggest emitter among the G20 countries. Urgent political action is necessary in Indonesia to secure a low carbon future.
