Japan
Japan is already experiencing devastating effects from climate change. This report collates scientific projections of how climate impacts will play out up to 2050 and 2100, on low, medium and high emissions pathways.
The science shows that Japan will experience worsening climate impacts if it follows a high-emissions pathway. Without urgent action, heatwaves will last more than fifteen times longer – and agricultural droughts lasting 22% longer will choke off Japan’s rice exports. The combination of sea level rise, coastal erosion and fiercer weather will cause chaos for Japan’s economy, which stands to lose around 3.72% of GDP by 2050 – with €404 billion in coastal infrastructure damages by 2050 alone.
The faster Japan adopts low-carbon policies, the less the climate impacts cascade and the more manageable they become. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will see the cost of climate impacts in Japan drop to just 1.6% of its GDP by 2050 and 3.47% by 2100.
Image © Masaya Noda / Greenpeace
Climate
Explore past, present and future scenarios for climate change in Japan. This section uses the most up to date climate science models to describe how climate change will affect temperature and precipitation trends in Japan. The research shows that on a high carbon pathway, temperatures in Japan could increase by as much as 2.4°C by 2050. On a low carbon pathway this drops to 1.5°C.
Ocean
How have sea temperatures changed in the oceans surrounding Japan, and what do future climate trends mean for the vital ecosystems and livelihoods supported by Japan’s oceans? This section shows how surface sea temperatures in Japan could increase by 1.7°C by 2050 in a high carbon scenario, triggering a sharp rise in ocean acidification and reducing fish catch potential by as much as 10.6%.
Coast
A changing climate could have devastating effects on Japan’s coastal settlements, infrastructure and ecosystems. Rising sea levels, coastal erosion and changing storm patterns could see 4 million people exposed to devastating floods by 2050, if it follows a high carbon pathway. Following a low carbon pathway and investing in climate-resilient coastal infrastructure will help Japan avoid the worst coastal impacts.
Water
Clean water is the foundation of all life. This section shows the increasing impacts from climate change threaten our access to water in Japan. Longer droughts, rising sea levels and more extreme weather will increase in the coming decades, choking off our most precious resource. In turn, that impacts agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure and tourism – causing massive economic costs. Only a low-carbon pathway can limit the damage.
Agriculture
Agriculture is a core element of Japan’s economy, contributing approximately 0.9% of the country’s annual GDP. This section shows the past, present and future impacts of climate change on Japan’s agriculture sector. It shows how climate change will impact crop productivity and put additional strain on Japan’s water resources, with droughts causing water demand to increase by up to 4.9% by 2050 – even in a low carbon scenario.
Forest
Forests are key to clean healthy air – supporting thriving ecosystems and economies. This section shows the past, present and future impacts of climate change on forests in Japan. If carbon levels remain high, huge losses in forest land will grow, damaging Japan’s agriculture, forestry and tourism industries. With urgent action, a low-carbon pathway will protect our forests from the worst impacts.
Urban
Cities in Japan face many threats from climate change. Unless we take urgent action, increasing extreme weather will batter urban communities across the country – damaging crucial infrastructure and causing massive economic losses. Increasing heatwaves and worsening air quality will harm urban residents’ health and even cost many their lives.
Health
The health of our planet is essential to the health of people in Japan. Without urgent action, climate change will drive longer heatwaves, rising sea levels and deadly storms, harming Japan’s economy. Higher poverty means worse health impacts. But on a low-carbon pathway, Japan can improve health outcomes and save lives.
Energy
Rising temperatures and more severe heatwaves will affect Japan’s energy system and change the profile of its energy demand.
Economic Impacts
Heatwaves, droughts, fires, floods and brutal storms. Japan faces multiple threats from climate change. Across sectors – agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure, tourism and more – the costs to the economy could be massive. Without urgent action, Japan stands to lose 3.72% of its GDP by 2050. That rises to 10.7% by 2100. By investing in a low-carbon economy now, Japan can limit those losses to 1.6% by 2050.
Policy
This section explores Japan’s historic and current emissions as compared with global emissions, and the targets and commitments it has put in place. Japan is the 8th biggest emitter among the G20 countries. Urgent political action is necessary in Japan to secure a low carbon future.
